It has been announced that humanity may witness the collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the lunar surface in 2032. According to IFL Science, this space object was first recorded in December 2024 through the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Initially, it was assumed that the asteroid could pose a threat to Earth, but subsequent observations completely ruled out this possibility. Now scientists have begun studying the potential threat to the Moon.
Studies indicate that the probability of an asteroid colliding with the Moon is approximately 4.3 percent. This conclusion was reached by a team led by Paul Wiergt, a physics professor at the University of Western Ontario. If the collision occurs, a crater approximately one kilometer in diameter could form on the Moon, and the energy output could reach the equivalent of 6.5 megatons of TNT. Experts assess this process as the largest lunar impact in the last five thousand years.
Such a cosmic phenomenon may not be limited to a visual picture. Moon material scattered from the impact is likely to cause a powerful meteor shower visible from Earth. At the same time, the risk of damage to the orbital motion of some satellites is not excluded.
According to Andrew Rivkin, an astrophysicist at Johns Hopkins University, it's too early to draw complete conclusions. Because the intensity of the event depends on exactly which point the asteroid will land at. Nevertheless, NASA is also considering scenarios for using nuclear technologies to change the asteroid's direction to protect the Moon and satellites when necessary.
The possibility of more accurate observation of the asteroid will appear from mid-2026 through the James Webb telescope. This will help to more accurately assess its dimensions and trajectory of movement. Professor Wiergt emphasizes that the observations at the beginning of 2027 will be crucial. However, if the threat is confirmed, the time for preventive measures may be very short.
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