Apps, Not Tech Owners, Will Reap Main Profits in AI Market

Chi-Hua Chien, a veteran of the venture capital market who was among the first to recognize the potential of Facebook, is putting forward unexpected predictions regarding the future of artificial intelligence (AI). In his view, the largest source of income will not be the giant infrastructure companies currently developing AI models, but the applications that deliver this technology to consumers. This is reported by Techcrunch.com news reports.

Drawing on twenty years of experience, Chien, one of the founders of Goodwater Capital, emphasizes the repetition of technological cycles. According to his analysis, during the eras of personal computers, the internet, and mobile communications, the primary value accumulated in the applied software layer rather than the infrastructure. For example, while infrastructure companies created $700 billion in value during the mobile era, apps like Netflix, Spotify, Meta, and Uber generated a market capitalization of $3.7 trillion.

Devaluation of Infrastructure and New Opportunities

While many investors are currently focusing on giants like NVIDIA or OpenAI, Chi-Hua Chien predicts that AI models will soon become a commodity. This means that over time, the gap between the most complex AI models and programs running on ordinary smartphones will decrease sharply. Currently, this gap is two years, but it is expected to shrink to three months by next year.

According to the expert, the winners of the AI era will not be those selling the technology itself, but the services that use it to make people's lives easier. This process recalls the internet era: back then, companies providing services via the internet profited more than those developing network equipment.

Venture Market and Investment Strategies

Chien also touched upon changes in the current venture market. According to him, large investment firms have become vertically integrated and no longer feel the need for other partners. This is leading to increased competition in the market and an artificial inflation of company valuations. Due to a practice called "rapid financing," startups are increasing their valuations several times over within a few months.

This trend is of significant importance for Uzbek users and local startups. The openness and decreasing cost of AI models in the global market allow local developers to create unique products using ready-made models without building expensive infrastructure. According to Chien, the following areas are the most promising in the future:

• Healthcare and medical technologies;
• Fintech and personal finance management;
• Entertainment content and media;
• Daily digital assistants for consumers.

In conclusion, Chi-Hua Chien is skeptical that Americans or other people will entrust their social lives and financial data to a single "super-app." He believes that in the AI era, specialized apps that deeply understand human behavior will maintain market leadership.