How Artificial Intelligence Affects the Labor Market: Economists Are Concerned

Leading world economists, including 16 Nobel laureates and chief economists from tech giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, have officially acknowledged that the modern economy lacks sufficient data to assess the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market. In a statement titled "We Must Act Now" released by experts, it is noted that the pace of technological development has far outstripped the speed at which its consequences are being studied. This is reported by Ixbt.com reports.

According to Anton Korinek, a professor of economics at the University of Virginia, economic science is currently attempting to analyze major technological shifts without the necessary tools. "We are operating in a thick fog, and predicting what happens next is extremely complex," he emphasized. This situation is relevant not only for global markets but also for countries transitioning to a digital economy, such as Uzbekistan, as unexpected changes could drastically affect employment levels.

Uncertainties in analytical methods

Currently, there is no single, precise system for measuring the susceptibility of professions to AI impact. According to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, there are at least five different methodologies for assessing this indicator, and their results differ fundamentally. While some analyses study real user queries to systems like Claude or Microsoft Copilot, others evaluate the theoretical potential for automating jobs with the help of experts.

These discrepancies are particularly visible in sectors with high automation risks, such as call center operators, tax document preparers, and copywriters. Economists believe that existing assessments often conflate the technical capabilities of AI with the actual level of worker adoption. Theoretical models fail to account for the costs of implementing technology and the readiness of companies to adopt them.

Initial changes in the labor market

Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, previously criticized optimistic forecasts regarding a sharp increase in productivity due to AI. However, he now emphasizes the high probability of short-term shocks in the labor market and supports the need to steer AI development in a direction that is beneficial for society and workers.

To obtain more accurate data, the Canaries Dashboard system, developed by Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson, is monitoring 4.6 million workers across more than 730 professions in real time. The project's initial findings are concerning:

• In sectors with high AI impact, employment for young people aged 22 to 25 is declining by more than 4% per year.
• Although the overall labor market currently appears stable, entry barriers for young professionals are increasing.
• The real impact of technology can only be determined through systematic monitoring.

According to the experts, if monitoring systems are not created now, the negative consequences of AI will only become apparent after the changes have become irreversible. This requires governments and economic organizations worldwide to allocate more resources to studying the socio-economic impact of technological progress alongside the development of the technology itself.