The AI Race: Yale study reveals how much investors are overpaying

Researchers at Yale University have completed one of the largest studies on the real-world economic impact of AI technologies. Based on an analysis of 380 trillion tokens, the report suggests that the stock market has already priced in the widespread adoption of this technology. Researchers found that investors are paying a significant premium for shares of companies expected to benefit most from AI. This is reported by Ixbt.com reports .

An article published by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) states that shares of companies considered to be the biggest beneficiaries of AI implementation are generating an average of 0.64% more return per week. Scientists have dubbed this phenomenon the "AI Premium." This figure reflects the high level of investor confidence in future productivity.

Investor expectations and market dynamics

The analysis utilized anonymized data from the OpenRouter platform, which routes requests to over 400 models such as GPT, Claude, and DeepSeek. The study covers the period from January 2024 to April 2026, representing approximately 2% of global monthly AI consumption. Experts developed an "AI Factor" metric and compared it with stock dynamics and employment data.

Notably, the positive effect is observed not only in tech giants but also in companies producing consumer goods and those with large manufacturing assets. Investors believe these sectors will drastically increase their productivity with the help of AI. At the same time, the "AI Premium" effect is prominent in US and European markets, while being significantly weaker in China and emerging markets.

The rise of agentic systems and the labor market

The study also found that the nature of AI systems has changed. While agentic AI systems (models that perform autonomous tasks rather than just responding) accounted for a small portion of the total volume in 2024, by 2026 they occupied more than half of all processed tokens. This demonstrates the evolution of technology from simple chatbots to complex autonomous assistants.

Labor market analysis shows that AI will bring significant benefits in the following areas:

• Communication and interpersonal interaction;
• Education and training processes;
• Persuasion and coordination of people;
• Complex management decision-making.

Meanwhile, according to ixbt.com, professions involving routine analytical tasks are expected to be most affected by AI. It is important to note that the Yale study analyzed investor expectations reflected in stock prices rather than actual productivity changes. This warns that there may be "inflated" expectations in the market.