3 different scenarios of the end of the war in Ukraine

Against the backdrop of the agreement between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to start peace talks, three different scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine were considered. This was reported by Bloomberg.

^{Photo: Atlantic Council}
The agency's analysts described three options that could form the basis for a diplomatic agreement between Russia and Ukraine:

♦ According to the main and most likely scenario, the territories occupied by Russia will remain under Russian control for the foreseeable future and will remain in an "unclear state." There is a possibility of exchanging some territories, for example, part of the Kursk region occupied by the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine will receive some security guarantees, but their strength will be determined during the negotiations. However, since Ukraine's membership in NATO is not on the agenda, the implementation of the obligations will depend on the decisions of politicians.

"Europe could persuade the United States to help Kiev for a while until it improves its defense capabilities," the forecast says.

♦ In the ideal scenario for Ukraine, the United States and Europe would be obligated to intervene if Russia violates the terms of the agreement, but the threat of a direct confrontation with Moscow worries even Kiev's most loyal supporters.

According to analysts' forecasts, the West could promise to increase military assistance to Ukraine, tighten sanctions against Russia, help develop Ukrainian industry and modernize its army. This would help Kiev join the European Union.

♦ The terrible option for Kiev is that before the ceasefire, Trump loses interest in Ukraine's future, stops military and financial assistance, and leaves the solution to the problem to European countries.

In this case, the deal would preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, but Russia would gain significant benefits, such as giving Moscow control over new territories and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, experts say.

Ukraine's reconstruction costs

Bloomberg estimates that Ukraine will need about $230 billion to rebuild buildings and infrastructure damaged by the fighting. However, there is currently a $130 billion shortfall between Kiev's needs and the funds it has been promised, which threatens the country's economic recovery and the sustainable existence of the state.

For the largest European countries, supporting Ukraine and strengthening their armed forces will cost $3.1 trillion over the next decade, the agency's analysts estimate.
The restoration of the Ukrainian army could cost about $175 billion over the next decade, depending on its peacetime condition and the area of ​​territory to be protected. The deployment of 40,000 peacekeepers over the same period would cost about $30 billion.

"Such huge military spending leaves European countries with a difficult choice in financing healthcare, social security and education," the report says.

European sources are concerned that members of the Trump team lack experience in negotiating with Russia, despite the fact that senior Russian officials have decades of contacts with the United States and Ukraine, and some have experience in intelligence services.

♦ Ukraine's conditions for ending the war

Ukraine is demanding the implementation of a "peace formula" that involves withdrawing troops to the 1991 borders. This is due to the "referendums" held there by Russia in 2014 and 2022 and the illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. Moscow rules out the possibility of negotiations based on the "peace formula".

♦ Russian conditions

Putin has put forward his own conditions for a ceasefire, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the self-proclaimed independent DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, the international recognition of these four regions and Crimea as part of Russia, Ukraine's withdrawal from NATO membership, and the lifting of sanctions. Zelensky called the proposal an "unbelievable" ultimatum. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”