Why did the war start: is Putin afraid of NATO or is he trying to restore the USSR?

There are two opposing views and positions when explaining why Vladimir Putin started the war on Ukraine. One of these views morally justifies Russia, while the other portrays it as a complete aggressor.

Against the backdrop of Trump and Putin's rapprochement, the Russia-Ukraine war is entering a new phase. Now Ukraine can only fully rely on the European Union, while the United States is moving to a neutral position. At the same time, Trump cannot force Ukraine to come to terms with Russia. If Ukraine continues to fight for its territorial integrity, the United States may not help Ukraine, but its means of influence to stop the war are very limited. The European Union, on the other hand, is afraid of Russia, and believes that if Ukraine is defeated, Putin will start a new war.

Against this background, the question of what Putin's true motives were is more urgent than ever. Because in a situation where the Ukrainian war may end or become less intense, Putin's internal motives will determine what will happen next.

So, so far, two opposing motives have been discussed.

Scholars such as the famous American scientist John Mearsheimer or the famous Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs are of the firm opinion that "Putin is only afraid of NATO expansion, but the idea of ​​restoring the USSR is frivolous." These scholars have been expressing this view for many years.

The second, but relatively widespread, view is that "Putin's real goal is to restore the USSR in one form or another, and NATO is just an excuse." This view is supported by many experts, politicians, and states, including the mainstream view in the European Union. There are also many statements by Putin that support this view. For example, Putin's statements like "The greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century was the collapse of the USSR" and similar ones are cited as evidence by the other side of the argument. Naturally, Putin has also made statements like "I said the collapse of the USSR was a tragedy, but the restoration of the USSR is a fantasy" to justify himself.

So, what motive did Vladimir Putin have for invading Ukraine, and what awaits the remaining countries after this war?

In my opinion, both motives are Putin's main motives. The primary task, or "minimum task", was to prevent NATO from expanding. Because historically, NATO was an organization created against the USSR and its core, Russia. Both during the Gorbachev and Yeltsin eras and during the Putin era, NATO was and is seen as a threat to Russia. Russia feels surrounded. In 2008, when US President George W. Bush officially invited Ukraine and Georgia to NATO, this caused serious discontent from Putin.

The second motive - creating a geopolitical pole inclined to Moscow, forming his own "team" in the post-Soviet space - was seen by Putin as a "maximum task", that is, a task that should be carried out whenever possible. During 2003-2014, oil prices on the world market became very high. Russia received trillions of dollars in income. With big money, big ambitions were also taking shape. Putin organized two major projects in the post-Soviet space. In military-strategic terms, it was the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and in economic terms, it was the Eurasian Union. He tried, lobbied, and exerted covert and overt pressure on all non-NATO states in the post-Soviet space to join these two organizations. However, due to the war in Ukraine, both of these projects, which were under Russian control, were morally weakened and devalued.

Today, the European Union is in deep fear. EU politicians say that Russia continues to heavily arm itself. And this armament may indicate that Russia may have some plans after the war in Ukraine. Moldova, the Baltic republics, and even Poland are mentioned as possible targets. The remaining countries, except for Moldova, are NATO members. However, since Trump came to power, NATO itself is in a certain crisis. The US's silent entry into the war due to NATO members is in doubt.

Ukraine has not yet been defeated. But it has been seriously weakened. Because the US, which was on its side, has taken a neutral position, and is even joining Putin and putting pressure on Zelensky. Putin seems to have achieved his minimum task of stopping NATO.

At the same time, even experts close to the government in neighboring Kazakhstan are not hiding their concerns. They say that if Ukraine is completely defeated, Putin will increase pressure on Kazakhstan.

In any case, it is a historic task for the Central Asian countries to show solidarity, unity, and integration. Recently, neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan reached a comprehensive agreement on the border issue. This will strengthen the positive atmosphere necessary for mutual trust and cooperation in Central Asia.

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