The situation on the battlefields in Ukraine has begun to shift in an unexpected direction. The latest report published by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that the balance on the front line has entered a new phase. Zamin.uz analyzes the development of events based on the conclusions of international experts.
April retreat: The first such instance since Kursk
According to military analysts, April of this year was not successful for the Russian armed forces. It has been reported that Russian troops lost control over 116 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine during the month. It is worth noting that such a situation was last observed in August 2024, during the incursion of Ukrainian forces into the Kursk region.
The point is that these figures refer only to lands where troops had firmly established themselves and were effectively holding, and do not include areas that were temporarily entered and exited.
Statistics: Why is the intensity of the offensive decreasing?
The ISW report reflects the sharp decline in the Russian army's rate of advance in figures:
Beginning of 2025: An average of 9.76 sq km of territory was captured per day.
In the first four months of 2026: This figure has dropped to 2.9 sq km.
Result of the last six months: Russia captured 1443.35 sq km of land. For comparison, during the same period last year, this figure was 2368.38 sq km.
Reasons for the crisis: Drones, communications, and "roadlessness"
Experts explain the decline in the pace of the offensive with several important factors. First and foremost, the determined counter-offensives by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the ground and their skillful use of drones are posing a major obstacle for Russian equipment.
Furthermore, serious problems have emerged in the communication and command systems on the front line. Limited access to Starlink terminals and the blocking of the Telegram application have negatively affected the coordination of the Russian army.
The whims of nature are also playing a role. The extremely wet winter of 2025-2026 exacerbated the spring "roadlessness" (rasputitsa) period. Muddy and flooded roads have almost completely halted the movement of heavy military equipment.
"Victories for the report" and the real situation
According to ISW data, the Russian command is employing a new tactic — entering contested areas with small groups. The goal is not to fully control the territories, but to prepare reports for the Kremlin about "successful advances." In practice, these lands are considered "gray zones" caught between two fires.
Although Russia entered only 28.28 square kilometers of land in April, the amount of territory under its actual control remains significantly lower.
Dear readers, do you think such changes on the front could serve as a catalyst for the start of peace negotiations in the near future? What other factors do you think have caused the situation to take this turn?
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