The dollar fell, the euro fell - what will be the next step in the currency market?

The dollar fell again, the euro fell, the ruble rose - what are the signals in the exchange rates?

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has announced new official exchange rates of foreign currencies against the soum for April 18. According to the new rates:

1 dollar — 12,964.43 soums (▼ 30.16 soums)
1 euro — 14,744.45 soums (▼ 17.40 soums)
1 ruble — 158.28 soums (▲ 0.60 soums)

Against these changes, the dollar fell after the second day. The euro also fell, while the ruble recovered slightly.

What do the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market indicate?

The recent fluctuations raise questions among economists and the public: is the exchange rate being artificially maintained?

Some economic analysts say that if the exchange rate is fully liberalized, 1 dollar could reach 18,000-20,000 soums. This, they believe, will be a rate closer to the real market supply and demand.

However, the Central Bank denies these claims. The regulator insists that the rate is formed through market mechanisms, and currency interventions are carried out to smooth out sharp fluctuations.

What could the rate be by the end of 2025?

There is no clear scenario yet, but analysts are citing 3 possible scenarios:

1. Stabilized scenario: If the Central Bank continues to manage the market, the rate may remain around 13,200–13,500 soums by the end of 2025.

2. Economic pressure scenario: If prices increase and inflation intensifies, the rate may reach around 14,000–15,000 soums.

3. Free market scenario: If the exchange rate is fully liberalized and the demand for the currency is high, 1 dollar could rise to 17,000–20,000 soums.

What to do? Near-term risks and opportunities

For businesses and exporters — those earning income in foreign currency will benefit if the exchange rate rises, but import costs will increase.
For the population — the risk of inflation remains, especially in sectors and markets dependent on imported products.
For the banking and financial system — maintaining a stable exchange rate will become the main problem.