What results does Uzbekistan need to qualify for the World Cup?

Despite the fact that the Uzbek national team already has the best record in terms of points in qualifying matches, the decisive matches will be played now.

In an interview after the match against Kyrgyzstan, the captain of the Uzbek national football team, Eldor Shomurodov, said that if Iran is defeated in the next round, the issue of qualifying for the World Cup will be resolved by 99 percent. But what if events develop differently?

Uzbekistan will play three more matches in the World Cup qualifiers:

March 25: Away against Iran;
June 5: Away against the UAE;
June 10: Home against Qatar.

Although the team is currently firmly in second place in the group table, the results of the next matches could change everything.

Record score

Uzbekistan hosted Kyrgyzstan in Tashkent on March 20 in the 7th round of the third (final) round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Defender Hojiakbar Alijanov scored a goal in the match against one of the group's outsiders, securing a narrow 1-0 victory. With these three hard-earned points, the Uzbek national team has consolidated second place in its group.

After 7 rounds, the number of points reached 16, leaving the closest pursuers behind by 6 points, which is a record for the team in terms of points accumulated in the final stage of the World Cup qualifying tournaments.

The best results so far were recorded in the qualifying stages for the 2014 and 2018 World Cups: the team led by Mirjalol Kasimov collected 14 points in 8 matches, but this was not enough for a direct qualification to the tournament in Brazil. Four years later, in the qualification for the World Cup hosted by Russia, the team led by Samvel Babayan fell behind with 13 points.

Previous group matches

At first glance, the Uzbek national team seems to be performing better in this qualifying round and has better chances. However, due to the change in the World Cup format and the increase in the number of participating teams, it is necessary to take into account that in the final round of qualifying, the number of groups and participants has also increased, and as a result, there are also matches against relatively weak opponents.

In Group A in the Asian region, Kyrgyzstan and the DPRK were just such opponents, and Uzbekistan gained most of its points - 12 out of 16 points - in matches against these teams. It should be noted that none of the matches against these relatively weak opponents were easy - in both matches against the DPRK, the opponents failed to use penalties, and the advantage in the minimum score (1:0) was preserved. In the first away match against Kyrgyzstan, the Uzbeks were forced to chase the score and only managed to win in the second half (3:2). In the second match in Tashkent, the opponent was one man short in the first half, which made the task easier (1:0).

So far, they have played only one match with the rest of the group, and the results in these matches are not so satisfactory.

Initially, in the match against the group favorite Iran in Tashkent, the opponent spent most of the second half with one man short, but did not take advantage of this (0:0).

Uzbekistan won three important points in the match against the UAE, the main rival in the fight for the second place in the group, in Tashkent (1:0), but in that match, the decisive moment was the red card of an Emirati player, and then the winning goal was scored from a penalty kick.

Another contender for the place, Qatar, suffered a painful defeat on the road (2:3). The Uzbeks, who were trailing by two goals after the first half, made a comeback in the second half thanks to goals scored by Abbas Fayzullayev, but the players lost focus in the extra minutes and the goal was conceded.

Now that goal could prove costly.

Next matches in the group

On Tuesday, March 25, the 8th round of matches of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers will be held in Asia. Iran will host Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan will host Qatar, and North Korea will host the UAE.

Despite Uzbekistan's current position in the group, all three of their last matches will be against strong opponents: after Iran, they will face the UAE and Qatar.

The UAE, currently in third place in the group with 10 points, has already played two matches against group favorites Iran and will now play against the DPRK, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, while another team with 10 points, Qatar, will play the final rounds against Kyrgyzstan, Iran and Uzbekistan.

That is, the easiest schedule is in the UAE, the most difficult is in Uzbekistan.

If Uzbekistan wins in Iran, as Shomurodov said, the task will be "99 percent accomplished," and the team will practically return to the fight for first place in the group, and even one point in the next two games will be enough to directly qualify for Uzbekistan. However, if a result other than a victory is recorded in Tehran, the situation will become more complicated.

Below are other scenarios for the next games:

Defeat by Iran and the UAE:

On Tuesday, Iran will play Uzbekistan at home to clinch a place, which will make the task even more difficult for the Uzbek players. If no points are scored that day, and the Arab teams win in parallel matches, the situation in the group will become more complicated for Uzbekistan - the rivals will close the gap by 3 points.

In this case, the pressure on the Uzbek team traveling to the UAE will increase twice. If they lose the next two games, the Uzbeks may lose hope of a direct qualification. Because in this case, on the eve of the last round, Uzbekistan, the UAE and Qatar (if Iran decides the qualification issue in the 8th round, it is likely that it will field a mixed squad and lose in the following games) will have the same number of points - 16. In the event of a tie, the goal difference comes to the fore, and the situation in the UAE is much better in this regard (it is currently +6 and will improve even more if it wins in the following rounds, while Uzbekistan is +4 and will worsen even more if it loses in the following rounds).

As a result, Uzbekistan will have to beat Qatar by as much as possible in the last round and hope that Kyrgyzstan will not lose by a large margin in the match with the UAE or will provide as much "help" as possible.

Draw or draws with Iran and the UAE:

If Uzbekistan draws with Iran, the number of points will reach 17, but this point will not have a significant impact on the situation in the group table yet, the Arab teams can win their matches and get closer (13 each). And if Uzbekistan loses to the UAE in the 9th round, the gap with this team will be reduced to one point, as a result, it will be necessary to defeat Qatar in the last round. Then, even if the UAE achieves the maximum result in the last three rounds and collects 19 points, Uzbekistan can take the lead with 20 points;

If Uzbekistan loses to Iran and draws with the UAE, the situation will be much easier: it is enough not to lose to Qatar in the last round. Then Uzbekistan will be ahead of the UAE with 18 (in case of a draw with Qatar) or 20 points (in case of a defeat of Qatar) (even if the Arabs record a 100% result with two opponents except Uzbekistan, they will collect a maximum of 17 points);

If they draw in the first two matches, Uzbekistan will have 18 points, and even if the UAE wins over Kyrgyzstan and the DPRK, they will be behind Uzbekistan with 17 points, and then a draw with Qatar in the last round will be enough (even if Qatar wins its first two matches, it will remain with 17 points due to the draw in the last round).

In addition, Uzbekistan can hope that the UAE and Qatar will lose points in matches against outsiders. Each point lost by the Arab teams will bring Uzbekistan closer to the World Cup.

The We Global Football portal currently highly assesses Uzbekistan's chances of participating in the World Cup. After the victory over Kyrgyzstan, the chances of Temur Kapadze's team were increased by 6 percentage points to 92.6 percent. The Uzbek national team is in fourth place among the contenders for one of the six direct World Cup places allocated to Asia, after Japan (which already has a place), Iran and South Korea. Australia and Iraq are the main contenders for the other two places.

Team situation

After Srechko Katanets, who achieved results in the first round with a pragmatic approach, left the position of head coach in January due to health reasons, and was replaced by former Uzbek national team player Temur Kapadze.

However, he is unable to use the services of defenders Husniddin Alikulov and Sherzod Nasrulloev, and striker Doston Urunov due to injuries. In addition, one of the team's leaders Jaloliddin Masharipov will not be able to help the team in the away match against Iran after receiving another yellow card for simulation in the match with Kyrgyzstan.

At the same time, a number of members of the squad were in good form ahead of the important matches. In particular, the team captain, Roma striker Eldor Shomurodov, Manchester City defender Abdukadir Khusanov, CSKA midfielder Abbos Fayzullaev, Pakhtakor defender Khozhiakbar Alijonov, Rubin defender Rustam Ashurmatov, were also active in the last match. Although only one goal was scored in the match against Kyrgyzstan, 24 shots were fired during the match, and only the goalkeeper's skill saved the visitors from a heavy defeat.

The coach stressed in the post-match press conference that there was little time to prepare, and the players mainly did theoretical training.

In practice, it can be seen that he made changes to the style of play right from his debut. Now the team is focusing more on attack, and the wingers are often moving forward. Right-wing defender Alijanov, in addition to scoring the winning goal, also scored a penalty.

Whether the specialist, whose dream was to reach the World Cup with his peers in football, and who, after starting his coaching career, led Uzbekistan's Olympians to the Olympics for the first time in history, will be able to take advantage of the opportunity that has arisen, will be shown by three important matches to be held in the next few months. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”