With the draw for the Champions League playoffs, the statistics and models also switched to a "new calculation" mode. The Opta supercomputer also updated its forecast after the draw results and revealed the most interesting trends of the tournament.
The biggest news is that Arsenal has further strengthened its position as the main contender for the championship with a 30.6% chance. That is, according to Opta's calculations, the London club is currently the favorite with a head-to-head advantage over the opponents. Bayern Munich took second place with 15%, while Manchester City completed the top three with 11%.
The most contentious point for fans is Real Madrid. According to Opta, the Madrid side has dropped out of the top ten favorites. The Royal Club's chances of winning were estimated at 1.7%, and the team dropped from 8th to 12th place. In short, the draw and the overall situation significantly impacted Real Madrid's position in the rankings.
The contenders for the victory of the Champions League 2025/26 according to Opta are:
1. Arsenal - 30.6%
2. Bayern Munich - 15%
3. Manchester City - 11%
4. Liverpool - 8.8%
5. Chelsea - 7.3%
6. Barcelona - 7.2%
7. PSG - 4.9%
8. Newcastle - 3.2%
9. Inter - 2.6%.
10. Tottenham - 2.3%
11. "Sporting" - 1.8%
12. Real Madrid - 1.7%
The remaining teams have a chance of less than 1%, meaning they fall under the "big surprise" scenario in Opta's calculations.
One thing is clear: in the playoffs, "form" decides, not "name." Although opta numbers are of interest to fans, the cost of a single mistake on the field is more expensive than a million predictions. Now the most interesting thing is - to what extent does this statistical picture become reality?
Read “Zamin” on Telegram!
