Harry Kane overtakes Yamal in Ballon d'Or race: who else is in contention?
Spain won the World Cup, and Rodri was named the tournament's best player. Nevertheless, initial estimates after the 2026 World Cup point to Harry Kane as the main favorite for the Ballon d'Or.
According to bookmaker odds cited by Squawka, the English striker's probability of winning is estimated at 40 percent. However, his closest pursuers boast such results that the fate of the award is far from settled.
The season that put Kane in first place
Harry Kane turned the 2025/26 season into one of the most prolific periods of his career. He scored 61 goals and provided 7 assists in 51 matches for Bayern Munich.
The Munich side won the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup. Meanwhile, Kane won a bronze medal with the England national team at the 2026 World Cup, scoring six goals in seven appearances.
Kane's main advantage is the combination of immense individual statistics and consistent results for both club and country in a single season.
If he wins the award, he will become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001.
Will Yamal's World Cup triumph be enough?
Lamine Yamal's chances are estimated at 33 percent. The Barcelona star won La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup, capping off the season with a World Cup victory with the national team.
Spain defeated Argentina 1–0 in extra time in the final to become world champions for the second time in history.
However, Yamal's individual stats at the World Cup were not as high as Kane's. Therefore, the main intrigue lies in whether voters will prioritize team trophies or individual statistics across the entire season.
Rodri could win the Ballon d'Or again
Sitting in third place with 22 percent, Rodri is also one of the most serious contenders in the race.
The Spain captain led his team to World Cup glory and earned the Ballon d'Or as the tournament's best player. This could be a strong case for him to be named the world's best player for the second time since 2024.
However, Rodri's club season was disrupted by injuries. This very factor might work against him in the competition with Kane and Yamal.
The top five contenders for the Ballon d'Or
Pos | Player | Club & National Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Harry Kane | Bayern Munich, England | 40% |
2 | Lamine Yamal | Barcelona, Spain | 33% |
3 | Rodri | "Manchester City", Spain | 22% |
4 | Kylian Mbappe | Real Madrid, France | 17% |
5 | Inter Miami, Argentina | 9% |
These percentages are conditional probabilities calculated from bookmaker odds. They may exceed 100% when combined due to bookmaker margins and market odds fluctuations. Therefore, this ranking is not an official voting result.
Journalists, not bookmakers, choose the winner
The Ballon d'Or winner is determined by votes from 100 international journalists. Evaluations take into account individual performance, team achievements, class on the pitch, and fair play.
The 2026 awards ceremony will take place in London on October 26. For the first time in the award's history, the winner will be announced outside Paris, in the English capital.
For now, Kane is ahead. But Yamal's World Cup title, Rodri's status as the tournament's best player, and Mbappe's strong output could completely change the voting landscape.
Do you think Kane's 61 goals deserve the Ballon d'Or, or should World Cup winners Yamal or Rodri take the prize?
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