The recently published S-1 report from SpaceX and the latest Starship test flight have painted a realistic picture for the coming years. Beyond grand plans for AI and lunar bases, a more serious reality exists: while single-use Starship flights might sustain the SpaceX business, they will not enable the cost reductions and new business models Elon Musk envisioned. This is reported by Techcrunch.com reports .
Currently, the company's primary revenue source remains the Starlink satellite network. Last year, this segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue. However, to maintain service quality, SpaceX must replace one-fifth of its satellites annually. Since 2023, the company has spent more on the Starlink project than on Starship and its infrastructure.
Elon Musk considers Starship the key to controlling Starlink costs. He had even stated that if this vehicle could not replace satellites at a low cost, SpaceX could face bankruptcy. The S-1 document acknowledges for the first time that full reusability of Starship is not strictly necessary to launch next-generation Starlink satellites. However, this will lead to increased costs.
According to analyst Tim Farrar, if full reusability is not achieved, the launch cost via Starship may not differ significantly from Falcon 9. A single launch cost is estimated to reach up to $100 million. During last week's test flight, issues related to restarting Raptor engines complicated the controlled return of Starship to Earth.
Nevertheless, SpaceX plans to launch next-generation Starlink satellites later this year. This represents 20 times the capacity of Falcon 9. However, until Starship becomes fully reusable, ambitious plans such as establishing data centers in space may remain unfulfilled.
Read “Zamin” on Telegram!
