According to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the likelihood of an agreement on an aerial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is very high. He announced this after a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the head of state, Moscow is not opposed to such an initiative; however, this process can only take place if Kyiv also takes certain steps towards mutual agreements.
Experts, including Russian political scientist Sergey Markov, also commented on this matter. In his opinion, if Kyiv meets halfway, stops airstrikes, and supports this regime, it could be beneficial for both countries and for peace in the region. In addition, Lukashenko proposed organizing a direct meeting in the city of Minsk between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a post on his Telegram channel, Sergey Markov stated that from Lukashenko’s statements, one can draw conclusions about the timing of the end of the SMO (Special Military Operation). According to him, the proposed ceasefire plan is as follows:
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An aerial ceasefire is announced almost immediately.
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A complete cessation of hostilities is implemented within 50 days.
Markov said that during this period, both sides will observe how the aerial ceasefire is implemented and, based on this, determine the conditions for a general peace. According to the political scientist, Lukashenko’s disclosure of this plan is no coincidence — he believes that a cessation of fire is expected starting October 1.
Some analysts and media outlets emphasize that such an agreement could be beneficial not only politically but also economically. For example, the authors of the Telegram channel “Big Transfer” state: “This is not only about peace, but financial factors are in the first place.”
In their opinion, despite the successful repulsion of attacks on oil refineries, complete stability in the domestic fuel market has not yet been ensured. This is considered one of the top priorities in the current situation. In addition, attacks on the city of Sochi reduce its attractiveness as a resort and could cause tens of billions of rubles in losses over the rest of the season.
The conclusion is that if an aerial ceasefire becomes a reality, it could not only reduce armed clashes but also serve as an impetus for positive changes in economic stability and the tourism sector. Therefore, the possibility of reaching an agreement is of great importance.
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