The heads of five European intelligence agencies, in their comments to Reuters, frowned on the optimism that the war in Ukraine would be "closed" as early as 2026. One of them assessed the US-mediated dialogue as "more like a negotiation scene."
According to sources, the main concern of the European side is that Russia prioritizes the gradual advancement of its strategic goals over seemingly quick peace negotiations. Some assessments mention, among Moscow's goals, the replacement of Kyiv's leadership and the view of Ukraine as a "neutral buffer zone."
Geneva meetings and the "two roads" scenario
When it comes to the next round in Geneva, sources say that Moscow may be trying to divide the negotiations into two directions at once:
1. Separate narrow agreements on the war itself,
2. Bilateral issues with the US - the topic of easing sanctions pressure and some economic agreements.
Meanwhile, the territorial issue remains an "ice": according to the source, Moscow demanded Kyiv's withdrawal from Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk, but Ukraine did not agree to this.
The White House refused
The White House opposed these assessments in Europe: according to the official position, criticism from unknown sources does not contribute to peaceful aspirations.
Saying "War won't end soon" doesn't mean "there's no hope"
Among the sources, there is another important point: one of the intelligence leaders noted that financial risks in the Russian economy may increase sharply in the second half of 2026. So, the phrase "it won't work out quickly now" doesn't automatically mean "it won't work out at all" - only the scenario can be longer, more difficult.
In conclusion, although loud statements about "agreement ready" will increase in spring-summer 2026, European intelligence is still cautious: in their opinion, the difficult questions leading to a real agreement (territory, security guarantees, sanctions) are still open. Yes, this news dampens the mood - but knowing reality is also a strategy: it helps to clearly see who is playing what game, at what point there might be a turn.
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