How will new US tariffs affect the economy of Uzbekistan?

US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariffs for countries around the world. According to these measures, it is planned to set a 10% tariff for Uzbekistan. Economist Mirkomil Holboev analyzed how the new tariffs will affect the economy of our country.

Trade relations between Uzbekistan and the US

In 2024, Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover with the US amounted to $882 million, which is 15.2% more than in 2023. Also, exports to the US amounted to $314.7 million, and imports amounted to $564.3 million. However, based on these figures, it can be seen that America is not Uzbekistan's main trading partner. Exports to the US account for only 1.2% of our country's total exports.

Impact of new tariffs on Uzbek exports

According to Kholbeyov's analysis, 86 percent of goods exported to the US are services. This is not subject to new tariffs. That is, only the remaining 14 percent of goods exports will be affected by the new tariffs.

Our country exports the following goods to the US:

• Unspecified goods (9999) - $7.9 million.
  
• Precious metals (7112) - $6.6 million.
  
• Aluminum - $6.6 million.
  

Although an additional 10 percent duty has been imposed on these goods, this will not have a significant impact on the total volume of exports.

Overall economic consequences of tariffs

Although the direct impact is not large, the new US tariff policy may slow economic growth worldwide. This will also have a negative impact on the economies of Uzbekistan's main trading partners - China, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. If trade growth slows down, our exports to these countries may also decline.

However, there are some positive aspects:

• Gold prices are expected to increase - This is one of Uzbekistan's main exports and may have a positive impact on the foreign trade balance.
  
• Imports may become cheaper - US tariffs are likely to reduce the prices of some goods on the global market. This may make imported products cheaper for Uzbekistan.
  

At the same time, this situation may create a new competitive environment for domestic manufacturers and affect their position in the market.

The direct impact of the new tariffs on Uzbekistan is very small, since trade turnover with the US is not that large. Also, since exports of services are duty-free, our exports are not expected to be significantly affected.

However, the US imposition of tariffs will have an impact on the global economy and may indirectly affect our economy through Uzbekistan's major trading partners. Therefore, it is important to be prepared for changes in external markets and strengthen economic diversification. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”