No sooner had the 7th round of the English Premier League finished than Opta’s statistics center, via its supercomputer, recalculated end-of-season title probabilities and presented a new ranking.
Artificial intelligence is currently giving the biggest chance to Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. The Gunners’ title probability is 44.2%. It is noted that the team, thanks to consistent play and results, has seized the lead in the race.
The reigning champions, Liverpool, slipped back a bit after two straight defeats: according to Opta’s models, the Merseysiders’ chance to defend the trophy is assessed at around 39.6%. Nevertheless, the team’s quality of play and squad depth keep them among the main contenders.
For Manchester City, the scenario is not so bright for now: the probability of reclaiming the throne is only 14.3%. This figure is explained by points dropped in recent rounds and the high pace of their rivals.
In brief:
Arsenal — 44.2% (leading contender)
Liverpool — 39.6% (close pursuit)
Manchester City — 14.3% (third scenario)
Experts emphasize that the model updates continuously: international breaks, injuries, December’s congested calendar, and head-to-head matches with direct rivals significantly shift the probabilities. For the moment, the title race sketches a picture of sharp rivalry between two teams — Arsenal and Liverpool — while City still has a chance to shake things up if it fixes its shortcomings quickly.
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