The Opta statistical portal has released its favorites ranking for the 2026 World Cup. It calculates the probabilities of national teams winning the title, reaching the final, advancing to the knockout stages, and progressing through the tournament.
Specific metrics have also been provided for the Uzbekistan national team. According to Opta's analysis, our representatives' chance of winning the trophy at the World Cup is estimated at 0.07%. While this figure may seem small, the most important thing for Uzbekistan is to perform worthily at its first World Cup and show character in the group stage.
According to the portal's calculations, the probability of Uzbekistan successfully passing the group stage and reaching the knockout round is 5.45%. The chance of reaching the Round of 16 is listed at 12.25%. Thus, although analysts do not include our team among the favorites, they do not consider it completely without a chance.
The probability of Uzbekistan reaching the quarterfinals is 3.78%. The indicator for reaching the semifinals is estimated at 1.16%. The chance of reaching the final is 0.32%. The probability of winning the championship remains at 0.07%.
Of course, numbers do not decide everything in football. Portals like Opta make predictions based on statistics, team rankings, player quality, recent results, and various models. But on the pitch, sometimes one goal, one save, or one correct decision can change all the calculations. That is the beauty of the World Cup.
The Spain national team is listed as the main favorite for the World Cup title. Opta estimated the 'La Roja' chance of winning the championship at 15.43%. France is in second place with 12.54%. England rounds out the top three with 10.88%.
Argentina also holds a place among the main contenders with a 10.28% rating. Portugal is estimated at 6.73%, and Brazil at 6.62%. Germany, Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium are also included in the top ten.
According to Opta, the favorites for the 2026 World Cup are as follows:
Spain — 15.43%
France — 12.54%
England — 10.88%
Argentina — 10.28%
Portugal — 6.73%
Brazil — 6.62%
Germany — 5.62%
Netherlands — 3.88%
Norway — 3.59%
Belgium — 2.26%.
For Uzbekistan, this rating is not a major pressure, but rather, it could be additional motivation. Our national team will go to the World Cup not as a favorite, but as a historic debutant. However, it is precisely such teams that sometimes become the most pleasant surprises on the big stage.
In short, Opta estimated Uzbekistan's chance of winning the 2026 World Cup at 0.07% and the probability of reaching the knockout stage at 5.45%. Spain, France, and England were listed as the main favorites. But football is not an Excel spreadsheet. On the pitch, heart, discipline, and a united team can 'edit' the numbers.
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