Opta Supercomputer: Who will win the Spain vs Portugal match?

Ahead of the 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between Spain and Portugal, the Opta supercomputer has calculated the winning probabilities for both sides.

According to the analysis, Spain holds a clear advantage in terms of winning in regulation time, while Portugal's probability is rated nearly twice as low.

Spain's win probability — 48.6 percent

According to Opta Analyst, the probability of the Spanish national team winning in regulation time 48.6 percentis estimated.

This figure makes the Spaniards the clear favorites for the match.

Portugal given a 25.6 percent chance

The probability of the Portuguese national team winning within 90 minutes 25.6 percentis estimated.

Nevertheless, the team led by Cristiano Ronaldo is capable of overturning any prediction in big games.

High probability of extra time

The probability that the match ends in a draw in regulation time and proceeds to extra time or a penalty shootout 25.8 percentis estimated.

The Opta calculation is as follows:

• Spain win — 48.6 percent;

• Portugal win — 25.6 percent;

• Draw and extra time — 25.8 percent.

The Iberian Derby kicks off at 00:00

The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between Portugal and Spain starts at 00:00 Tashkent time.

The numbers favor Spain, but in the playoffs, a single moment can change the entire script.