The political atmosphere in Kyrgyzstan has heated up again: the unexpected dismissal of Kamchibek Tashiev, Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Chairman of the State Committee for National Security, has fueled various speculations. Central Asian analysts and political scientists are interpreting the decision in different ways.
According to analyst Temur Umarov, the main intrigue in the current situation is that Tashiev has not yet made a public statement about his resignation. Umarov attributes this to Tashiev's being hospitalized in Germany. Therefore, it is still unclear how events will develop, he says.
However, Umarov emphasizes that the reality needs to be “reread” - Tashiev’s influence was based not on informal ties, but rather on close relations with Sadir Japarov and the power of the apparatus. If these two pillars are lost, the influence will naturally fade. In other words, today it is unlikely that someone in the system will oppose the president’s decision and openly show loyalty to the former leader - this scenario is almost unimaginable.
There is also an important detail here: according to the analyst, there were no major “purges” after the resignation. For example, rumors circulated that the head of the NKR in Bishkek had been arrested, but they were quickly denied. At the same time, the president himself denied that there was a sharp disagreement in his relations with Tashiev. Umarov sees this as a “hand of goodwill”: as if there is a hint of a “good” resolution of the issue through dialogue, without escalating it.
There is another interesting point in the analyst's version: Tashiev may be offered to continue his activities in a field that does not attract too much public attention. Given that he often travels to Europe for treatment, it is possible that such a "quiet regime" will be easier for his health.
The main conclusion is this: according to Umarov, a "new Tashiev" will not appear in Kyrgyzstan. Because at a time when the issue of keeping power under tight control is on the agenda, it is a strategic risk for someone other than the president to have too much influence in the system. That is why it is assumed that as soon as Japarov dismisses Tashiev, he will move towards weakening the "superiority" like the NKR, reducing its sphere of influence.
In short: the rest of this story is still ahead, but the trend is quite clear - the system is moving towards a "single center". In politics, the most important rule at such times is: whoever is stronger writes the rules.
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