Report Concealed by SFO and Science Journal Conclusion: When Does Switching to an Electric Vehicle Pay Off?

Comprehensive scientific analysis results have been published regarding whether prematurely replacing functional petrol and diesel cars with new electric vehicles genuinely benefits the climate. A 34-page report commissioned by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFO), which was initially withheld from public release, has been disclosed and sparked widespread debate.

As revealed through internal correspondence obtained by the Republik magazine and the WAV research group via freedom of information laws, responsible officials were concerned that the recommendation to prematurely replace functional cars would not align with the public's financial capabilities and would provoke serious public backlash. This official document is now fully public, and its conclusions demonstrate the real numerical impact of electric vehicles on the environment.

Full Life Cycle Analysis: 90 Percent of the Swiss Fleet

The INFRAS company, which conducted the study, calculated the entire life cycle of a car—emissions generated during manufacturing, energy and fuel acquisition, daily use, and future disposal processes—as a single whole:

• What does the 90 percent figure mean? According to the authors' estimates, replacing approximately 90 percent of internal combustion engine vehicles in the Swiss fleet with new electric vehicles of the same category will benefit the climate. This does not mean emissions will drop by 90 percent, but rather indicates the proportion of vehicles for which replacement yields a positive outcome;

• Where does the old car go? The main results are based on the scenario where the old car is completely scrapped. If the sold car continues to be driven by another driver on the second-hand market or simply increases the total number of cars on the roads, it becomes impossible to accurately model how much global emissions will actually decrease;

• Annual mileage criterion: As INFRAS specialist Roberto Bianchetti emphasized, assuming an average vehicle service life of 16 years, switching to an electric vehicle almost always pays off ecologically starting from approximately 8,000 kilometers per year. Early replacement of cars driven less than 4–5 thousand kilometers per year brings no climate benefit.

The US Experience: Independent Analysis in Science Magazine

An independent study published in the prestigious Science journal by University of California scientists Elliott Campbell and Roland Geyer also analyzed this topic comprehensively. The experts compared the characteristics, battery capacities, and energy sources of over 400 vehicle models:

• Effective in 92 percent of cases: In 92 percent of the modeled scenarios, replacing a gasoline car or standard hybrid with an electric vehicle before the end of its service life reduced overall greenhouse gases;

• 3-year driving period: To fully "offset" the large amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere during the manufacturing of a new electric vehicle through savings during its operation, an average of about three years of driving is required.

Is There a Reason to Rush?

According to the researchers' unanimous conclusion, these results do not mean that functional gasoline cars should be immediately sent to the scrap metal yard:

• Important exceptions: Very low vehicle usage, heavy models with high energy consumption, and regions where electricity is primarily sourced from coal and polluting sources may mean that switching to an electric vehicle does not yield the expected ecological result;

• Economic factor: Purchasing a new car remains primarily a matter of financial capability for citizens. Therefore, when directly applying Swiss or US calculations to other countries, local power grid characteristics and road conditions must be taken into account.