Birth rates in Uzbekistan have recently shown a downward trend. According to the results of the first quarter of 2026, 191,100 babies were born in the country, which is 3.5 percent less than in the same period last year. Notably, this negative dynamic has been continuing for 10 consecutive quarters.
At first glance, this situation may cause concern among the population. However, experts emphasize that one should not rush to label this as a crisis. In their view, the main reason for this process is related to demographic waves, which is considered a natural and temporary phenomenon.
According to expert analysis, the primary factor today is the smaller size of the generation reaching marriageable age. For instance, the average age of marriage for men is around 27, meaning those getting married today correspond to the generation born in 1998. During those years, birth rates in the country had declined by 5.3 percent. Therefore, the current low figures are assessed as a natural result of that demographic "gap."
At the same time, one of the key indicators—the fertility rate—remains stable. It is noted that the number of children per woman averages 3.38. This figure is significantly higher than the 2.1 level required for the natural replacement of the population. Thus, there is no basis to speak of a general demographic crisis.
There are also no drastic changes observed regarding the age of marriage. No significant increase in the age of marriage for men and women has been recorded. However, the 3.5 percent decrease in the number of marriages in the first quarter may have a certain impact on future years.
Experts note that there is a possibility that birth rates may decline slightly further in 2027, as the current number of marriages directly affects future birth statistics.
According to economist Mirkomil Kholboyev, the current situation does not mean that the population's attitude toward having children has changed. This is a natural, "seasonal" demographic transition process associated with a decrease in the number of people of reproductive age.
Thus, it appears that behind the decline in births lies not a serious crisis, but a natural process related to the succession of generations. The question now is whether these figures will return to growth in the coming years. Time and demographic dynamics will provide the answer to this question.
