Achieving peace between Ukraine and Russia: Why is it so difficult?

A lot of diplomatic efforts are being made to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, but achieving peace is still not easy. Although the successes in the negotiations between the United States and Ukraine have given reason to hope for an end to the war, the next steps are more complicated than a simple ceasefire. There are many obstacles to a lasting peace settlement, and each of them poses greater problems than any ceasefire.

Is a ceasefire beneficial for Ukraine?

On the one hand, it is not clear what benefits a ceasefire can bring to Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky has had a favorable effect by resuming constructive dialogue with the United States and by resuming military assistance to Ukraine and the United States. This helped to break the Kremlin’s narrative that “Ukraine does not want war” by allowing a ceasefire. But it is clear that Ukraine does not need to agree to a ceasefire without returning to the principles adopted at the beginning of the war. Ukraine is not ready to accept Russian troops that have not been withdrawn from its territory, because any ceasefire would allow Moscow to gather strength for new attacks.

The issue of security guarantees was not clarified in the Jeddah talks, which indicates that each side seeks to strengthen its position. The US, on the other hand, insisted on talking about guarantees only after a ceasefire, and therefore Kiev reluctantly agreed to the compromises that are permissible in most cases.

Is a ceasefire beneficial to Russia?

Russia, on the other hand, has remained silent, not believing in a ceasefire. The Kremlin insists that agreeing to a temporary ceasefire will not lead to rapprochement for them. Putin has also said in private that any ceasefire will only allow the adversary to regroup.

The main thing in Russia's direction is that if the war ends without Kiev's overtures, Putin will have to try to achieve his goal through military action. This will ensure that Russia does not trust Ukraine's allies, who consider themselves "very difficult to trust."

Russia can set itself clear conditions and demand that the United States stop providing weapons to Ukraine. Thus, Putin will allow the war to end with agreements, but will not end up with humiliation for Moscow or full recognition.

Diplomatic risks and considerations for the future

There are many problems between the United States and Russia in achieving a temporary ceasefire. If each side wants to determine the goals that must be achieved in order to end the war, they will not accept a hasty process. In this process, threats, numerous conditions, and contractual terms will have to be considered. To demonstrate their determination, Russia and Ukraine need to consider many new economic, political, and military conditions through direct dialogue and relations, together with the countries of America, Europe, and Ukraine. Follow “Zamin” news on “Telegram”