2026 could update the ranking of the hottest years in history

2026 could be recorded as the second hottest year in the history of meteorological observations. This was reported by Europe's climate change monitoring service, Copernicus.

According to expert forecasts, there is an approximately 80 percent probability that 2026 will rank second in history in terms of average global temperature. At the same time, there is an estimated 20 percent chance that the temperature this year could match or even exceed the record level set in 2024.

Calculations suggest that the average global temperature during 2026 is expected to be 1.56–1.61 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period of 1850–1900. Furthermore, the probability of the temperature exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold is estimated at over 99 percent.

If these forecasts are confirmed, 2026 will go down in history as the second calendar year in which the global temperature was 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels. Previously, such a figure was observed in 2024.

In addition, climatologists predict that the average global temperature for the four-year period including 2023–2026 will also be above the 1.5-degree mark. This is considered one of the important signs that the process of global warming on the planet is continuing at a high rate.

For information, the Paris Agreement on climate sets out efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period. This goal is of great importance in mitigating the negative consequences of climate change.

At the same time, experts emphasize that the global temperature exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold in a single calendar year does not mean that the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement has been definitively violated. This is because the threshold in the agreement is assessed based on long-term temperature changes, not individual years.