With the Premier League title race heating up, Arsenal’s position at the front has become even more solid. Mikel Arteta’s London side have collected 50 points after 22 rounds and sit alone at the top of the table.
Most importantly, the Gunners are not giving rivals a chance to “catch their breath”: they are 7 points clear of second- and third-placed Manchester City and Aston Villa. At this stage of the season, such a gap is not just a statistic, but a psychological edge as well.
Opta’s supercomputer backed up the picture with even sharper numbers: Arsenal’s probability of winning the Premier League is rated at 89.62%. For comparison, after round 18 this figure was 65.63%. In other words, in just a few rounds the Londoners’ title “formula” has started to look far more convincing.
As for the chasers, the numbers are not great news for them. Manchester City’s title chances have dropped noticeably to 6.91%. Aston Villa’s probability of lifting the trophy is around 3.36%. For Liverpool (0.07%) and Chelsea (0.04%), the projections are almost symbolic—meaning they remain only a theoretical scenario.
According to Opta’s analysis, the title door is effectively closed for the rest of the league. Of course, in football you can never say “never”, but these figures clearly reflect the current reality: for now, the key to the championship is in Arsenal’s hands.
Now the main task for the Londoners is not to let this advantage slip away. A 7-point cushion feels good, but it doesn’t allow complacency: one or two poor results and the pursuers will close in immediately. That’s why the best approach for Arteta’s team is composure, consistency, and treating every matchweek like a final. The title chance is high, but there are still many “hard-working minutes” ahead to make it official.
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