Will there be a major earthquake in Uzbekistan? Scientists provide an official response

The Academy of Sciences has issued an official response to reports circulating on social media regarding a potential major earthquake in Uzbekistan in the near future. Experts have urged the public not to trust unverified information and not to panic.

Previously, the UN had warned Central Asian countries about the need to be prepared for earthquakes. The document noted that certain regions of Uzbekistan, particularly the Fergana Valley, are among the seismically active zones. This triggered various speculations and discussions on social media.

Ulfat Nurmatov, head of a laboratory at the Institute of Seismology, stated that the fact that Uzbekistan is located in a seismically active region has been well-studied scientifically. Special maps have been developed regarding major fault lines in the country, their potential, and the magnitude of possible earthquakes. All modern buildings and structures are designed based on these specific calculations.

According to the expert, the last major earthquake in the Fergana Valley was observed in 2011, influenced by an earthquake that occurred in Kyrgyzstan. Its magnitude was 6.4. In subsequent years, tremors with magnitudes of 5–5.5 have mainly been recorded.

The scientist also noted that there are major tectonic faults in the southern regions, particularly in the Pamir part of Tajikistan, which could cause strong earthquakes. However, their impact has also been calculated in advance, and the risk levels have been scientifically assessed.

Nurmatov stated that a large part of the Fergana Valley falls into a seismic zone of up to 8 points. Only in some small areas of the Andijan region is there a theoretical possibility of tremors up to 9 points. However, the probability of a major earthquake exceeding 8 points occurring within 50 years is only 5 percent. This means there is a 95 percent probability that such an event will not occur.

Experts emphasize that there is currently no reason for the public to be concerned. Official agencies are urging citizens to rely only on reliable sources and not to trust unfounded reports circulating on social media.