Can expensive analyses be skipped? An important discovery regarding Western Siberian fields
Researchers at the Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas have developed a new scientific approach that significantly reduces the costs of evaluating and exploring natural gas fields.
According to the authors' estimates, applying the mathematical analysis method called "tornado" can save from 30 million to 300 million rubles per year on a single field alone. The results of the scientific work were published in the specialized journal "Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanix i gazovix mestorojdeniy".
Why is field evaluation excessively expensive?
To forecast in advance how much raw material can be extracted from gas fields, engineers use complex digital computer models:
Hundreds of complex indicators: Using such models requires numerous parameters, such as the porosity and permeability of underground rocks, reservoir pressure, and the physical and chemical properties of water;
Expensive laboratory studies: Gathering this data involves drilling new wells, taking core rock samples, and conducting time-consuming laboratory analyses;
The core question: To optimize costs, the scientists scientifically substantiated whether or not all indicators need to be studied with equal depth in every single field.
What is the "tornado" analysis and how does it work?
The scientists thoroughly studied data from 66 major gas accumulations in Western Siberia and tested a special algorithm:
Vortex-like diagrams: The method is not related to natural disasters — the analysis results are visually displayed in diagrams resembling a tornado vortex. Factors with the strongest impact on gas production forecasts are marked with wide bands and separated from secondary factors;
Individual approach per formation: As project participant Artyom Yeliseyev explains, while the movement of bottom water is decisive in shallow and porous Cenomanian formations, understanding which formations are involved in accurate gas volume assessment and extraction is more important in deeper, dense Hauterivian formations;
Precise filtering: As a result, a clear algorithm was formed for each individual field determining which measurements can be conditionally omitted, and which can be canceled or reduced without degrading forecast quality.
National software and future plans
During the research, domestic software created in Russia was also tested, proving that its speed and calculation accuracy are by no means inferior to foreign alternatives.
Currently, scientists are working on adapting this method to fields in other regions. Experts emphasize that the savings of 30–300 million rubles are a theoretical forecast based on preliminary estimates, and the practical effect will depend on properly structuring field exploration plans.
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