The Central Bank of Uzbekistan set the official exchange rate for the next currency trading on November 24 at 11,914 soums. This figure shows one thing: since the beginning of the year, the national currency has strengthened against the dollar by 7.7 percent. According to economists, this is connected to a certain extent with the stabilization of the domestic market and the mitigation of external factors.
International rating agencies are also announcing a number of estimates regarding the future trajectory of the soum. In particular, according to S&P's updated forecasts, the national currency against the dollar can be formed at the following levels:
- At the end of 2026: 12,592 soums;
- At the end of 2027: 13,158 soums;
- At the end of 2028: 13,751 soums.
In fact, it is not easy to accurately predict the exchange rate - there is constant volatility in this area, the influence of various economic and geopolitical conditions. There are several main factors that determine the movement of the sum against the dollar:
- Firstly, the pace of economic growth in Uzbekistan. If the economy develops steadily, the devaluation of the soum slows down. If investments increase, production expands, and exports become more active, the national currency will be at its peak.
- Secondly, the inflation rate is of decisive importance. If public spending increases and prices are unstable, the demand for the dollar will increase, and the soum will be under pressure.
- Thirdly, the balance of foreign trade is the ratio of exports and imports. If the volume of exports is high, foreign exchange earnings will also increase, which will positively affect the value of the sum. If imports increase sharply, on the contrary, pressure increases.
These factors complement each other and determine the prospects of the national currency. Especially in the context of global instability in recent years, the influence of each factor is becoming even more noticeable.
Therefore, although the future course of the soum against the dollar is predicted to a certain extent, its formation will depend on economic policy, the situation in the world market, and internal stability.
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