Housing prices in Uzbekistan decrease by 4.8 percent in soums

In 2025, financial conditions in Uzbekistan eased relatively, and the banking system maintained sufficient reserves to cover potential risks.

According to the Central Bank's review, the population's ability to purchase housing has improved, and real estate transactions have increased. However, the quality of microloans and the debt burden of citizens in this area remain among the primary risks.

Key indicators in the banking system have improved

As of January 1, 2026, GDP growth in Uzbekistan was 7.7 percent, and inflation stood at 7.3 percent.

The share of non-performing loans in the banking system decreased to 3 percent. The capital adequacy ratio reached 18.3 percent, and the liquidity coverage ratio reached 208 percent.

According to the Central Bank, the increase in bank profitability, the growth of deposits, and the decline in the level of dollarization in the economy have strengthened financial stability.

Housing prices decreased in soums

In 2025, housing prices moved closer to fundamental economic indicators.

Real estate prices calculated in the national currency decreased by 4.8 percent over the year. However, due to the strengthening of the soum, prices increased by 1.5 percent in dollar equivalent.

This means that market changes appear differently depending on the currency in which housing prices are calculated.

Population's ability to buy homes has increased

The report notes that nominal wages grew by 19 percent throughout 2025.

Additionally, the housing affordability index rose from 115 percent to 126 percent. This was influenced by the increase in household income and the relative easing of mortgage terms.

The number of real estate purchase and sale agreements notarized increased by 15 percent, reaching 295,400.

Overall debt burden decreased, but microloan risks are rising

The ratio of the population's debt service costs to income fell from 38 percent to 37 percent.

This indicates that the overall debt burden has eased slightly. However, the Central Bank noted that the opposite trend is being observed in the microloan segment.

In particular, the rising debt burden on microloans and deteriorating credit quality require constant monitoring.

Which risks could affect the banking system?

According to stress test results, the Uzbek banking system will maintain stability under the baseline scenario.

However, if severe negative economic conditions arise, capital indicators in some banks could approach minimum requirements. Nevertheless, overall liquidity in the system is expected to remain at a sufficient level.

The Central Bank identified the following as primary risks:

• tightening of global financial conditions;

• credit risk related to microloans;

• cybersecurity threats;

• economic consequences of climate change.

The regulator announced that to mitigate these risks, it will continue to strengthen capital buffers based on Basel III requirements, tighten lending standards, and maintain continuous monitoring of the financial system.

The overall outlook is positive: banks are stable, and housing affordability has improved. However, if risks in the microloan market are overlooked, they could create new pressure on this stability.