What are the chances of the Uzbekistan U-23 team reaching the quarter-finals?

Today, Uzbekistan’s U-23 national team will face the Republic of Korea in the AFC Asian Cup group stage. This match will sharply clarify the situation in Group “S” and provide a clear answer regarding the quarter-final ticket.
Our team coached by Ravshan Haydarov currently has the same tally as Korea — 4 points each. A win today would allow our side to advance as group leaders.
In the parallel fixture, Iran and Lebanon’s U-23 teams will go head-to-head. The outcome of that match may also directly affect the final calculations in Group “S”.
According to the competition rules, if Uzbekistan defeat the Republic of Korea, they will reach the quarter-finals as Group “S” winners.
A Lebanon win in the parallel match would also help our team progress to the next round.
If Iran beat Lebanon, a draw against Korea may still be enough for our team.
However, in that case the scoreline and goal difference become crucial.
Under the regulations, if the Uzbekistan — Republic of Korea match ends in a scoring draw (1:1, 2:2, 3:3), both teams will reach the quarter-finals regardless of other results. In this scenario, goals scored in head-to-head matches provide the advantage.
If a 0:0 draw is recorded, the situation becomes even more delicate.
If Iran beat Lebanon by at least two goals, Iran will advance to the next round.
If Iran beat Lebanon by one goal (1:0 or 2:1), Uzbekistan will reach the quarter-finals. If Iran win 3:2, goal difference becomes level and the number of yellow-red cards will be taken into account.
Ahead of the match against Korea, our team held an official training session yesterday. In an interview with the media, our player Nurlan Ibrayimov stressed that the team is fully ready and will step onto the pitch only for victory.
“We knew the game against Iran would be tough; now the next match is decisive,” he said. “We are playing only to win,” the footballer added confidently.
For reference, all Matchday 3 games will kick off simultaneously at 16:30 Tashkent time.
Therefore, all group scenarios will be updated at the same time.
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