An updated draft of the “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy published on the SOVAZ portal has sharply revised energy-sector targets. The document notes that the state’s expected results for natural gas production over the next five years have been significantly lowered, effectively cancelling previous ambitious benchmarks. This was reported by upl.uzreports.
In the new version, the 2030 target is set at 38.7 billion cubic meters. This is far below the 62 billion cubic meters in the plan approved in September 2023—meaning the target has been cut by more than 37%. Notably, statistics for the first 11 months of 2025 show 38.9 billion cubic meters, already above the “benchmark” set for 2030.
The strategy estimates total gas production in 2026–2030 at around 186.8 billion cubic meters. The annual breakdown suggests the decline will continue in the near term: 37.9 bcm in 2026, 35.6 bcm in 2027, and a possible drop to 33.4 bcm in 2028. Only in 2029 is a 23.3% jump to 41.2 bcm forecast, but a decline is expected again by 2030.
Responsibility for meeting the revised targets has been assigned to the Ministry of Energy and Uzbekneftgaz. Analysts recall that production in the sector has fallen by 21.7% over the past four years, stressing that this reflects systemic errors in strategic planning and an overfocus on short-term issues.
The document’s figures also “clash” with optimistic statements previously made by Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov: in mid-December last year, he said the decline would be halted as early as 2026. The main hope was tied to ramping up work at new fields in Karakalpakstan. However, the new draft shows that even with new capacity, the overall outlook will remain negative in the coming years.
In recent years, Uzbekistan—despite previously being a major gas exporter—has been forced to import gas from Russia in reverse mode via the Central Asia–Center pipelines due to rising domestic demand and declining well output. This is seen as a new turning point in the region’s energy policy.
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