Yamal surges ahead in the Ballon d'Or race
Following the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup, a new favorite has emerged in the race for the Ballon d'Or. Users on the Polymarket platform estimate the chances of Spanish national team winger Lamine Yamal winning the award at 51 percent.
The 19-year-old footballer's main rivals include Harry Kane, Lionel Messi, and Kylian Mbappe. However, based on current indicators, Yamal is significantly ahead of his closest pursuers.
World Cup title boosts Yamal's chances
Spain became world champions for the second time in their history after defeating Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the 2026 World Cup final.
Although Ferran Torres scored the decisive goal, Yamal's performance throughout the tournament, his impact on the team's attacks, and his contribution to the championship have placed him among the top candidates for the Ballon d'Or.
On Polymarket, his probability of winning is listed at 51 percent. This is a significantly higher result compared to the other contenders.
Harry Kane in second place
England national team striker Harry Kane holds second place with 27 percent.
Kane's candidacy is also highly regarded, but he trails Yamal by 24 percent. This gap reflects how market participants have reacted to the post-World Cup sentiment and the players' overall results in the tournament.
The main contenders on the current list are:
Lamine Yamal — 51 percent
Harry Kane — 27 percent
Lionel Messi — 8 percent
Kylian Mbappe — 4 percent
Messi and Mbappe's chances have declined
Although Argentina captain Lionel Messi recorded high individual statistics at the 2026 World Cup, his team's defeat in the final seems to have affected his chances.
Polymarket users estimate the probability of Messi winning the Ballon d'Or at 8 percent.
Kylian Mbappe, who was the tournament's top scorer, is in fourth place with 4 percent. Even though the French striker's personal statistics are high, team results can also be an important factor in voting for the award.
This is not an official ranking
Polymarket indicators are not the official decision of the Ballon d'Or organizers or the voting journalists. They are formed based on the paid predictions of the platform's participants.
For this reason, the percentages may change drastically following players' subsequent performances for their clubs, new awards, injuries, or other events.
Nevertheless, Yamal's lead with 51 percent shows how much his standing in the football community has risen following the World Cup victory.
Is Yamal closing in on the historic award?
Spain's championship has given Lamine Yamal a major advantage. Now, his fate in the Ballon d'Or race will depend on his club-level results, personal statistics, and his performance for the remainder of the season.
For now, market participants have made their choice: the main favorite is Lamine Yamal. But the situation in the race could change several more times before the voting concludes.
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