Rainfall may increase in Uzbekistan this autumn: which regions are expecting precipitation?

In Uzbekistan, the autumn of 2026 may turn out to be wetter than usual. In particular, precipitation above the norm is likely to be observed in the Fergana Valley, Tashkent, Syrdarya, and Jizzakh regions. The World Meteorological Organization notes that one of the main factors influencing the weather globally during this period is the intensifying El Niño phenomenon.

Autumn is generally considered one of the seasons in Uzbekistan when precipitation increases. However, this year this indicator may be higher than usual for certain regions.

According to preliminary forecasts, the autumn season in the republic is expected to be wetter, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in October and November.

In particular, the number of rainy days and the amount of precipitation in certain provinces may be notable.

Which regions might experience more precipitation?

Forecasts emphasize that the same picture will not be observed across all regions of Uzbekistan.

Specifically, the probability of precipitation exceeding the norm is reported for the Fergana Valley, Tashkent, Syrdarya, and Jizzakh regions.

Rainy weather may be observed relatively more often in these areas during the second half of autumn.

At the same time, seasonal forecasts do not indicate rain on a specific day or week. They show the probable change in temperature and precipitation compared to the usual climatic norm over a given period.

Therefore, it is not correct to understand the forecast as meaning "it will rain every day throughout the autumn."

When will the wettest period be?

The first weeks of autumn may begin with relatively warm and dry days. However, precipitation activity is likely to increase by October.

October and November are viewed as the period when the bulk of autumn precipitation in the republic is likely to be observed.

Therefore, seasonal forecasts are of particular importance for dehkhans, farmers, and other agricultural sectors.

While increased precipitation can be positive for moisture reserves on the one hand, on the other hand, heavy rains also increase the likelihood of short-term adverse conditions in some areas.

Is El Niño behind this?

One of the main factors being focused on in the autumn weather forecasts is El Niño.

According to the latest data released by the World Meteorological Organization on September 3, El Niño has already formed and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months. WMO forecasts estimate the probability of its persistence during the September–November 2026 season to be close to 100 percent.

El Niño is a major climatic process associated with a significant warming of water temperatures above normal in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean.

It is not limited to the ocean area alone. By affecting atmospheric circulation, it can alter temperature and precipitation distribution in various regions of the world.

In its forecast for the August–October 2026 period, the WMO noted the possibility of wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of Central Asia.

However, El Niño does not automatically mean heavy rain in Uzbekistan

An important aspect is that the impact of El Niño does not manifest itself in the same way in every country and even in different regions of the same country.

The WMO itself emphasizes that the impact of a strong El Niño can vary drastically depending on the region. The general global signal does not fully determine the exact picture of local weather.

Therefore, it would be incorrect to explain autumn precipitation in Uzbekistan by a single factor alone. Local atmospheric processes, the movement of cyclones, and other climatic factors also play an important role.

Autumn can also be warm

Interestingly, an increase in precipitation does not mean that autumn will necessarily be cool.

The WMO's global forecast for September–November 2026 indicates that the probability of above-normal temperatures is strong over a large part of the landmass. At the same time, the precipitation regime may shift towards wetter in some regions and drier in others.

Thus, there is a possibility that autumn in Uzbekistan will be relatively warm and wet at the same time.

What kind of autumn awaits Uzbekistan?

Based on current seasonal forecasts, the main picture of autumn can be envisioned as follows:

However, it should not be forgotten that these figures are probable seasonal forecasts. Short-term forecasts are considered much more reliable for knowing the weather on specific days.

Nature is preparing to change once again

The autumn of 2026 could be an interesting season for Uzbekistan from a weather perspective.

On one side is the intensifying El Niño.

On the other side are international forecasts indicating the possibility of wetter conditions for parts of Central Asia.

In Uzbekistan, precipitation may be above normal in certain regions, including the Fergana Valley, Tashkent, Syrdarya, and Jizzakh.

The main changes are expected to manifest in October and November.

Therefore, this year's autumn may differ from usual: a season with more rain, variable weather, and the intensified influence of climatic processes.

The WMO's latest forecasts show that El Niño could strengthen until the end of the year. Therefore, observing the weather in autumn will be important not only as a daily necessity, but also to understand how major climate processes are affecting Uzbekistan.